The 1948 election has been called the biggest political upset of the 20th century. No one, except for Truman himself, believed that the President would be around for a second term. Pollsters, political commentators, and even members of Truman’s own Democratic Party thought that the election would go to Republican Thomas Dewey. The results of the upcoming election seemed so certain, in fact, that the Chicago Tribune published an infamous early edition with the banner headline, “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.” Despite the dreary predictions he heard and daunting challenges he faced, Truman was able to pull off a landslide victory.
With America recently winning the second World War, the country’s economy was hitting a period of growth. The war brought on a time of prosperity and America would strengthen its position as the world’s richest country. As celebrations were held on the day September 2, 1945, President Harry Truman wasn’t thinking about the strange election he would experience in the upcoming years. As 1948 drew closer, that meant a new race for the Oval Office. For the Republican Party nomination, there was Thomas E. Dewey for President and Earl Warren running alongside for Vice President. Thomas Dewey served as the 47th Governor of New York from 1943 to 1954. This, however, was not his first presidential election. He was also the Republican nominee for the 1944 election but ultimately lost to Franklin D. Roosevelt as the President secured his fourth term.
Following the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945, Harry Truman stepped up as President and finished World War II, but even after all of that, he decided to run for election in 1948. As it grew closer and closer to voting time, everyone was betting on Thomas Dewey to take the win. No one actually believed that Truman would be around for a second term. Political commentators, pollsters, and even members of Truman’s own Democratic Party were all convinced that the election would go to the Republican nominee. On election night, Thomas Dewey confidently awaited the results in New York. Harry Truman was in Excelsior Springs, Missouri during the election and instead of staying up to see the results, he went to bed. Truman woke at 4 a.m. to find that his popular vote was up to two million votes, and he was further in electoral votes. He brought this to the Secret Service’s attention, telling them to take him back to Kansas City, ‘because it looks as if we’re in for another four years.’
Even though everyone was expecting Dewey’s win, they were surprised when Truman took the Presidency by a landslide. With 303 electoral votes for Truman and 189 electoral votes for Dewey, it was an easy win. When it came to the popular votes, it came down to a two million difference. With Truman at 24,105,695 popular votes and Dewey at 21,969,170, it was a closer race in that regard. For other candidates, J. Strom Thurmond (the States Rights Democratic Party candidate) came in with 39 electoral votes and 1,169,021 popular votes, while Henry Wallace (former Vice President) came in with 0 electoral votes, and 1,157,328 popular votes.
While this election happened over 70 years ago, people today have compared 1948 to the recent 2016 election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The obvious difference between Trump and Truman are the political parties for which they fought for. Truman was an outspoken liberal, and Trump was a confident republican. Both campaigns talked heavily on foreign policies. Truman set America against the growing influence of the Soviet Union. Now, this was a different time, one where America had recently entered the Cold War, and nuclear threat was a serious thing for the President. But you could argue that Donald Trump brought up this generation’s foreign affairs. Countries like North Korea still possess threats of communism and nuclear warfare. Donald Trump wanted to go over and settle the dispute between the two countries.
Polling was a large part of how elections were run and how people received feedback, opinions, and votes. Gallup, an Omaha based company, would be one of the many polls that would mistake for Truman’s win by a significant margin. My dad worked at Gallup for about six years and he told me that the famous picture of the Chicago Tribune with the banner headline saying “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” is hung up all around the building. This picture is a constant reminder that mistakes happen, and companies (especially polling companies from that era) need to be ready to deal with mistakes.
Dewey’s defeat was a major factor when it came to reforming how polling worked just because companies like Gallup got it wrong. Once Truman was elected, he did sign off on quite an important amendment. Traditionally, Presidents would only serve two terms, but this was never written in stone. Franklin D Roosevelt broke this by serving four terms. On February 27, 1951, Truman signed off on the 22 Amendment, which limited Presidents to two four year elected terms in office. Americans agreed with this because after Franklin Roosevelt’s death in 1945, the people realized that having a president serve for more than 8 years wasn’t good for the country. This is still in effect today, and it does bring a needed change to the country, keeping people from getting sick of one continuous leader.
Overall, it’s fair to say that the election of 1948 caught America by surprise. Everyone predicted Thomas Dewey to take the oval office, but quite the opposite happened, and looking at the results now? It seems that Dewey had no chance. With Truman leading the country with his second term, he helped the country’s economy recover from another world war. This election kept people on their toes and reminded the people that they shouldn’t just assume the results of an election, and we still see that today.
